Risk Management
One area that has received more attention in recent years. Risk management is becoming every day a more fundamental part of what we do and how we plan.
This playlist has 37 episodes.
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Is there Something to Learn from Bayes' Theorem That Will Change Your Perceptions of Risks?
(May 15, 2023)
In this episode, Ricardo explores the practical facets of Bayesian thinking, demonstrating how previous events and knowledge can reshape our evaluation of future risks. In his discussion, he avoids complex formulas, highlighting the theorem's real-world implications. He also underscores the significance of 'triggers,' events or facts that provide additional information, refining our grasp of probabilities.
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Why It Is Important to Recognize When It Is Time to Quit
(Dec 19, 2022)
In this week's episode, Ricardo talks about the moment to get out of a certain situation and discusses three essential points based on the book "Quit" by Annie Duke. People are socialized to believe that staying in a harmful situation is a virtue, so the idea of stopping what is toxic, whether professionally or personally, is often seen as a negative choice and a demonstration of fragility.
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Using Technology Readiness Level to Evaluate New Technology Risks
(Nov 14, 2022)
This week, Ricardo discusses TRL, or the Technology Readiness Level, a method developed by NASA in the 1970s to ensure the reliability and safety of the technology they used in their projects. In terms of safety, the higher the TRL number, the more developed the technology is. All the things that come at the outset of studying a new technology—empirical research, a scientific concept, an article, an idea, etc.—are related to the first 3 stages.
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Three Tips To Mitigate Inflation Risks in Your Project
(Sep 05, 2022)
This week Ricardo discusses the impact of inflation on the project risks. In the past, countries with weak economies were more likely to experience inflation; however, today, countries with stronger economies, like those in Europe, are experiencing relevant impacts of inflation. The ability to complete projects may be heavily impacted by inflation, which presents a significant issue for project managers.
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The Trap of Diderot Effect: Never Implement a Feature You Don’t Need
(Aug 16, 2022)
In this week's episode, Ricardo addresses the risks of the Diderot Effect. For many, this effect is directly related to consumption bias. However, it is perfectly applied also when we add something to our project, and that something triggers a series of new features causing control to be completely lost. This effect impacts budget, deadlines, and team, among many other factors.
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How Availability Bias Changes Our Perceptions of Risks
(Jul 04, 2022)
In this week's episode, Ricardo talks about availability bias. He explains that when a risky event is repeatedly exposed on the news or by a group of people next to us, our perception is altered by that exposure, which often makes us lose rationality about the real probability or impact. One of the examples is the panic seized by the delay of flights all over the world.
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Antifragile: Why Being Able to Gain from Disorder is Key to Succeed Nowadays? – Part 2/2
(Mar 28, 2022)
In this week's episode, Ricardo returns to the concept of Antifragile, presented by Nicholas Taleb in his book, where Taleb stated that the antifragile "is not necessarily the opposite of fragile" but "what improves with shock." Ricardo talks about making the different types of systems antifragile, systems that can be you, your career, or your company. He complements the concept and outlines the five steps from fragile to antifragile.
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Antifragile: Why Being Able to Gain from Disorder is Key to Succeed Nowadays? - Part 1/2
(Mar 21, 2022)
In this week's episode, Ricardo talks about the concept of Antifragile, presented by Nicholas Taleb in his book. To better explain it, Ricardo explains the meaning of being "fragile" and "robust," where "robust" is not necessarily the opposite of fragile. Robust refers to the ability to resist shock and is not necessarily improved by shock. What improves with shock is Antifragile. And what you gain from stress.
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How to Write a Great Problem Statement
(Feb 14, 2022)
In this week's episode, Ricardo talks about the Problem Statement. He explains that we often receive a problem with a solution from our customers. The given solution is not always the correct one; before thinking about how to implement the solution, we need to be clearer about what problem our project is trying to solve.
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Why Early Warnings are Critical and How to Implement Them
(Jan 31, 2022)
In this week's episode, Ricardo talks about the relevance of early warning systems. He comments that one of our biggest aims in risk management is to anticipate the knowledge and awareness of unexpected events. Ricardo gives some examples and explains that one of the mechanisms that help us identify threats is project indicators, showing clear signs of a problem without having the pain.
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The Counterintuitive Nature of Exponential Growth
(Jan 17, 2022)
In this week's episode, Ricardo talks about the exponential growth of problems in the project. He explains with several examples what exponential growth is, such as the behaviour of social networks when a post is shared with ten people and that each one will share with another ten people. So on, the number of views has a massive growth. We often rely on intuition to make a future prediction, imagining linearity.
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IT Projects May Be Riskier than You Think
(Sep 20, 2021)
In this week's episode, Ricardo talks about the risks that can be associated with technology projects. He explains that the approach to managing technology projects, where releases are delivered faster and more frequently, can allow aspects that are not thoroughly thought out and validated to produce security flaws, risks, and even use and encouragement of unexpected behavior when used.
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5 Tips to Minimize the Challenges of Virtual Meetings
(Mar 02, 2021)
In this week's episode, Ricardo gives tips for optimizing virtual meetings. As everyone knows, this type of arrangement has become a "nightmare" for many. Endless hours in front of a small screen have become a torment for productivity and performance. There are 5 simple tips that are much more related to discipline and behavior than to any type of technology.
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Bowtie Method to Evaluate Risks
(Oct 06, 2020)
This week, Ricardo talks about the evaluation of risks using the Bowtie method. The method has its roots in the oil and gas industry, but it is used today in several areas to visualize the event, the threats that could trigger the risk and its consequences. After evaluating the threats and consequences, the team should work together to identify barriers that they can implement to avoid or mitigate the threat or impact.
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5 Tips to plan and execute projects in chaotic environments: Understanding the concept of Antifragility
(Dec 07, 2018)
In this episode, Ricardo addresses the current challenge of planning and executing projects in chaotic environments. He uses some of the concepts presented by Nassim Taleb in the book Antifragile to give you five tips to use in your projects today: developing options, proactivity and paranoia, flexibility, having your skin in the game, and getting energy out of failures.
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Urgency and Trend: Two Additional Dimensions in Risk Assessment
(May 30, 2018)
In this episode, Ricardo talks about two additional dimensions in risk assessment, going beyond traditional probability and impact. He gives examples of how the assessment of the urgency and the tendency of a risk can increase the quality of the risk mapping.
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How to Bring Your Project Back on Track
(May 22, 2017)
In this episode, Ricardo gives 5 tips on how we can get a troublesome project back on track: • Seek support from the sponsor; … • Evaluate the scope; … • Deliver a minimum viable product (MVP); … • Rebuild the credibility and motivation of the team; … • Re-negotiate deadlines and costs with the sponsor and the client.
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World Economic Forum's Global Risk Report
(Feb 01, 2016)
In this episode, Ricardo explains that the risks report produced by the World Economic Forum is a source of rich information about global risks and can help a lot in during a project risk management. Download the report at http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2016/
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Understanding the relation between the Scope size and the associated Risks
(Sep 22, 2014)
In this podcast, Ricardo talks about the relationship between the risks and the project scope. Not just the clarity of the scope, but also its amplitude, contribute to the amount of risk that must be managed.
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Understanding the Risk Attitude
(Jun 03, 2013)
In this podcast, Ricardo talks about people's different attitudes and profiles against the risks. He explains these attitudes and profiles by analyzing a chart in the book "Understanding And Managing Risk Attitude", by David Hillson. See Ricardo's brief review of the book here: https://www.ricardo-vargas.com/books/recommendations/75/ View the chart discussed in the podcast:
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Understand the Difference between Residual and Secondary Risks
(Feb 13, 2012)
In this podcast, Ricardo talks about the difference between the secondary risk and residual risk. He explains that the secondary risk is generated as a side effect the implementation of a response. Residual risk is one that remains, even after implementing responses. Ricardo gives several examples for these two types of risks.
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Do You Know the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)?
(Jan 30, 2012)
In this podcast, Ricardo talks about the framework created by the IRGC and explains the five steps in this framework. He explains that this model clarifies the various perspectives of risk and it is similar to the risk management knowledge area of PMBOK.
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Differentiating Workaround, Contingency and Fallback Plans in the Risk Acceptance
(Nov 09, 2011)
In this podcast, Ricardo talks about workaround, contingency and fallback plans - risk's responses. He explains each type of response and gives examples of use of these responses.
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The risk of pricing a project without Scope
(Jun 06, 2011)
In this podcast, Ricardo talks about the difference between cost and price of the project and gives some tips to put the price on the project. He explains that it is often important to divide the project into two - the first to define the scope and the second based on the scope, to detail the other design needs.
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What is Possible to Learn in Risk Management from the Tragedy in Japan
(Mar 21, 2011)
In this podcast, Ricardo talks about the earthquake and tsunami occurred in Japan with regards to project risk management. He explains that any given risk has a probability greater than zero and less than 100%.
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How Different People See the Risk in Different Ways
(Jan 25, 2011)
In this podcast, Ricardo explains that the degree of risk exposure is the composition of the impact and severity of risk and that the definition of degree as high, medium or low involves the experience, culture, fears and emotions of those who are evaluating. He gives some tips on how to assess risk in an impartial manner.
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Importance of Monitoring and Controlling Risks
(Dec 20, 2010)
In this podcast Ricardo discusses the importance of monitoring and controlling the risks. He says that the risks are "alive" and that monitoring is the only guarantee that the response will be really effective.
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Contingency Reserves x Management Reserves
(Jun 21, 2010)
In this podcast, Ricardo talks about the difference between the Contingency Reserve and the Management Reserves. He explains that both work with a financial protection for the project and that the management reserve is about the perception of the risks of the company.
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Automotive recall from the perspective of Project Management
(Mar 08, 2010)
In this podcast, Ricardo talks about the problems of recall in the automotive industry which occurred in February and how project management can help in situations like this. He explains that there is an increasing pressure on time and lower costs, leading companies to a greater exposure to risk.
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Extend Risk Management to Also Include the Opportunities
(Nov 30, 2009)
In this podcast Ricardo presents the concept of opportunities management as part of the risk management process. He also talks about the most important strategies to respond to the "positive" risks in a project environment.
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Using the Quadratic Average (Mean) in the Qualitative Risk Analysis
(Jun 15, 2009)
In this podcast, Ricardo Vargas talks about the qualitative risks analysis, sharing a model to qualify better the project risks using an qualitative analysis with numeric quantitative results by using the quadratic average calculation, allowing a simple and efficient approach for risk management.
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Risk Database
(Jan 12, 2009)
In this podcast, Ricardo talks about the importance of documenting the project risks in a structured way the risks in order to generate a risk database. He also explains what information should be documented in the database. This podcast was recorded only in Brazilian Portuguese. The link below is for the Brazilian Portuguese version.
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RBS - Risk Breakdown Structure
(Jan 05, 2009)
In this episode, Ricardo explains what is a RBS, how it can help to identify project risks and how it should be created. This podcast was recorded only in Brazilian Portuguese. The link below is for the Brazilian Portuguese version.
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Developing the Risk Responses
(Dec 03, 2007)
In this podcast, Ricardo approaches the most diverse responses that could be given to project risks, aiming to reduce the total level of exposition of the project, as also improve the chances of new opportunities. This podcast was recorded only in Brazilian Portuguese. The link below is for the Brazilian Portuguese version.
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Risk Management
(Nov 19, 2007)
In this podcast, Ricardo approaches the 6 risk management processes of the PMBOK Guide and it's characteristics. This podcast was recorded only in Brazilian Portuguese. The link below is for the Brazilian Portuguese version.
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Recovery Strategies for Troubled Projects
(Oct 01, 2007)
In this podcast Ricardo approaches the possible recovery strategies of troubled projects, its risks and benefits. This podcast was recorded only in Brazilian Portuguese. The link below is for the Brazilian Portuguese version.
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Risk Identification in Projects
(Jul 05, 2007)
Ricardo Vargas talks in this Podcast the main tools and techniques to better identify the project risks. This podcast was recorded only in Brazilian Portuguese. The link below is for the Brazilian Portuguese version.
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