Issue #18 - SXSW 2025 Showed the Future — Tariffs Showed the Price

In This Issue

• South by Southwest: What I Learned about the Future
• Tariffs: Why Global Projects Just Got More Complicated
• OpenAI Launches Free Academy for AI Learning
• Start Your Quantum Journey: Free Courses to Explore the Future of Computing
• Uncertainty Cycle® Workshop and Lecture at the Brazilian Congress of Projects
• Masterclass in AI-Driven Project Management — New Cohort Open!
• AIPM Now Licensed in the UK and Several Other Countries
• Unlock Your Potential: Explore My Online Courses

We're living in a paradoxical moment.

On one hand, events like SXSW (South by Southwest) 2025 are painting a thrilling picture of what's next — with AI embedded in physical spaces, no-code development accelerating delivery cycles, and quantum computing knocking on production's door.

On the other hand, geopolitical tremors like the reintroduction of U.S. trade tariffs are sending real shockwaves through our global project pipelines — disrupting costs, timelines, and even feasibility.

You might think these are separate forces: one about possibility, the other about constraint. But if you manage projects, build strategy, or shape digital products, you already know the truth:

These trends are converging — and they're reshaping how we define what project management is about.

Today, we are going to break it down.

South by Southwest: What I Learned about the Future

South by Southwest (SXSW) is one of the most significant global events for technology, innovation, and culture, held annually in Austin, Texas.

It gathers futurists, tech experts, entrepreneurs, and creative thinkers to discuss emerging trends shaping the future of various industries.

I attended SXSW as part of a personal and professional experience aiming to understand the emerging trends in technology and artificial intelligence and how these will shape how we work.

What I saw at SXSW was an overwhelming amount of transformative ideas in a very short time. Five key ideas stood out among the many talks and debates, and I want to share them with you.

Below, you can see four trends that I believe will be part of our future faster than we may think.

Physical AI

One of the most impactful concepts was Physical AI. In the near future, we'll communicate directly with devices like TVs, fridges, and cars. AI, robotics, and IoT will allow us to interact with technology in a more natural way, such as your fridge suggesting dinner based on what's inside it or you establishing a dialogue with your TV to define the best thing to watch based on your mood, without the use of remote controllers (they will be extinct soon).

This will represent a major shift in how we engage with technology.

Vibe Coding

Another game-changer was Vibe Coding.

Vibe coding is a method of AI-assisted programming where users describe their desired app or software functionality in plain language, and a Large Language Model (LLM) generates the code.

One of the most disruptive experiences I had was with my friend Manuel Lemos during one of the breaks on the first day of SXSW. We created a fully functional web application in less than 5 minutes during a break in one of the sessions. We used a no-code tool called Lovable. It was so impressive that I genuinely felt in "love" for it. I never ever thought this would be possible.

We are now moving from low-code to a remarkable zero-code.

This shift will transform software development and how we manage projects, making them ultra-agile and faster to improve iteratively. At the same time, this change has the potential to completely disrupt what it means to be a software developer and what it means to manage these types of projects.

If you have not seen Vibe Coding in action, watch this 5-minute demo I did on my YouTube channel to reach your own conclusions!

Biotechnology

Biotechnology is rapidly transforming the landscape of science and technology, with breakthroughs that once sounded like science fiction becoming reality. One of the most exciting frontiers showcased at SXSW 2025 is the emergence of biocomputing—a field where biological components, such as neurons and organoids, are being engineered to process information in ways that mimic or even surpass traditional silicon-based computers. These biological computers don't just crunch numbers; they learn, adapt, and evolve, leveraging the natural complexity of living cells.

This blend of biology and robotics could pave the way for machines that are far more adaptive and efficient in dynamic environments. Instead of relying solely on code, these systems can "learn" biologically, creating responsive machines that better mimic human-like perception and decision-making. This could be game-changing for fields like autonomous vehicles, rehabilitation robotics, and intelligent prosthetics.

The healthcare implications are just as groundbreaking. Biocomputing is being explored as a tool to personalize medicine and simulate human diseases with incredible precision. This convergence of biotechnology, neuroscience, and AI was a clear theme of the conference: the future of tech isn't just silicon—it's living. The possibilities presented stretch far beyond what's possible with classical computing, pushing the boundaries of innovation into the living world itself.

Take a look at this fascinating presentation from Colossal, a company working on bringing back the long-extinct woolly mammoth using CRISPR technology. This raises important ethical and ecological questions but also highlights the advances we've made in genetics and biotechnology.

Quantum Computing

Quantum computing was another major topic. It's the next frontier in technology with the potential to transform industries like AI and cryptography.

For those not aware, quantum computing is a revolutionary type of computing that uses the principles of quantum mechanics to process information. Unlike classical computers, which use bits that represent either 0 or 1, quantum computers use qubits that can exist in multiple states at once thanks to a property called superposition. They also leverage entanglement, which allows qubits to be interconnected in ways that enable incredibly fast and complex problem-solving.

This makes quantum computers especially powerful for tasks like optimizing supply chains, simulating molecular interactions, and cracking encryption—challenges that would take classical computers years or even centuries to solve.

As quantum computing evolves, it will, for sure, intersect with AI, creating new opportunities and challenges. I saw this exciting conversation with Arvind Krishna, the CEO of IBM at SXSW 2025, that I highly recommend:

By the way, if there is one topic you should invest some time in understanding (which I am already working on), it is quantum computing. It will be a massive shift in how we think about technology today.

Finally, SXSW reminded me that technology is evolving rapidly, and we need to rethink our approaches. I could not close this part of this newsletter without mentioning the brilliant talk by the MIT Technology Review Editor, Niall Firth, called 10 Breakthrough Technologies of 2025.

Figure 1 — Niall Firth (MIT Technology Review) in the Session "10 Breakthrough Technologies of 2025" of SXSW Graphical representation developed by

Tariffs: Why Global Projects Just Got More Complicated

I know the newsletter is already long, but I cannot leave this topic out.

While SXSW showcased some exciting technological advancements, it also raised important questions about the geopolitics shaping the future of our projects. I even mentioned this in the "Big Ideas" videos I published at the end of 2024.

Recently, the U.S. government reinstated tariffs on key tech infrastructure, including AI hardware, GPUs, semiconductors, and cloud components.

This move triggered a "tsunami" in the markets and retaliatory measures from China, with Bloomberg aptly describing it as a "quiet earthquake" in the tech industry.

The impact is real, profound, and immediate.

For project managers, this is a wake-up call.

Let me be honest — you and I, reading and writing this, are not the ones making trade policy decisions. We don't sit in government rooms or global trade forums.

But we are deeply affected by the outcomes.

Our carefully crafted timelines are suddenly at risk due to factors outside our control.

This week, I even shared an episode of my 5 Minutes Podcast about this, where I break down how tariffs are shaping the future of global tech projects. Be sure to give it a listen.

Startups in the AI space are already scaling back model training or shifting infrastructure to EU-based providers just to avoid exposure to potential geopolitical tensions. Enterprise procurement teams are renegotiating contracts or locking themselves into existing cloud partnerships, reducing their flexibility and increasing operational rigidity.

This isn't just a cost issue. It's an agility issue.

And in today's landscape, agility is the currency of project management.

Tariffs create uncertainty, and uncertainty kills velocity.

As a project manager, I feel this shift deeply.

In my client's projects, I've been thinking about this nonstop. Why? Because it touches everything — vendors, services, trade logistics.

Sometimes, you're building a product meant to serve a global audience and potentially generate revenue in different parts of the globe. But suddenly, due to trade shifts, your access to specific markets or essential components becomes limited or economically unviable.

These new dynamics aren't precisely technical debt, but they behave like it. They're silently sneaking into sprint planning, influencing decisions, and complicating how we build and update our directions.

And what worries me most isn't just the financial cost — it's the unpredictability.

I explore this in my course, where I teach people how to deal with troubled projects and crises. This is an area I significantly strengthened and worked on extensively during my time at the United Nations. That's where I learned the most — in real, complex, often critical situations.

If there are only two things I want you to take away from this topic, it's this:

• Standing still won't help. The faster you adapt, the more resilient and capable you become. Speed is everything in times of change.
• Complaining won't help either. These decisions — these shifts — are often made way above the project manager's level. Our job is not to wish things were different. Our job is to react — effectively — to the reality we're given.

As the world is pretty much in "crisis" mode, we must understand that we don't operate based on how things should be; we take action based on how things are.

What Has Been on My Radar Recently?

OpenAI Launches Free Academy for AI Learning

Something that's been on my radar lately — and it should be on yours too:

OpenAI just launched something big, and it's 100% free.

The OpenAI Academy is a hands-on learning platform packed with practical courses designed to help anyone learn, apply, and grow with AI — no matter their background.

If you've been thinking, "I don't have the budget or time to dive into AI right now," this is your chance.

Whether you're a project manager, a team lead, or someone just trying to stay relevant in this fast-moving space — this resource is gold.

Watch the intro video, explore the courses, and get started today here.

Start Your Quantum Journey: Free Courses to Explore the Future of Computing

Quantum computing is one of the most promising frontiers in technology and is poised to transform the way we understand and process information.

While traditional computers face limitations when dealing with highly complex problems, quantum computing has the potential to offer innovative solutions to challenges that previously seemed impossible.

It promises to revolutionize areas such as cybersecurity, drug molecule simulations, logistical optimizations, and even artificial intelligence development.

With this technological revolution on the horizon, learning more about quantum computing is not just an advantage. It's a necessity for those looking to stand out in the professions of the future.

Mastering this technology places you at the forefront of an emerging field and offers vast career opportunities.

Because of that, I have compiled a list of some courses for you to explore:

• Google Quantum AI - Quantum Error Correction Guide (Coursera)

Quantum error correction is one of the biggest challenges in quantum computing, and understanding this area is essential for working with viable quantum systems. The course offered by Google Quantum AI on Coursera addresses this issue and provides a solid foundation for understanding solutions to ensure the reliability of quantum systems. Best of all, you can access the content for free.

Learn more here.

• IBM Quantum Learning

IBM offers a practical and free platform where you can program real quantum computers. This is a unique opportunity to learn by doing—experimenting with quantum algorithms and testing your skills on both simulators and actual quantum processors. The platform also provides a series of tutorials to help you get started with quantum programming.

Discover more here.

• Codecademy: "Intro to Quantum Computing"

​​​​​​​Codecademy offers a beginner-friendly course that introduces the fundamental principles of quantum computing, highlighting how it differs from classical computing. The course covers essential topics such as qubits, superposition, and entanglement, providing a solid foundation for those new to the field. It includes AI-assisted guided coding help, quizzes to test your knowledge, and upon completion, a certificate is awarded.

This course is a valuable resource for anyone interested in exploring the basics of quantum computing in an interactive and accessible manner.

Learn more about the course here.

Be aware that this is not a sponsored newsletter, ok? All of these recommendations are because I truly believe that these courses can be useful for your professional development.

With these courses, you can begin your journey into the world of quantum computing and prepare for the opportunities that this groundbreaking technology will bring in the future.

Quick Announcements

Uncertainty Cycle® Workshop and Lecture at the Brazilian Congress of Projects

I am thrilled to announce that I will be leading the Uncertainty Cycle® workshop and giving a lecture at the Brazilian Congress of Projects (CBGPL) in Fortaleza on April 22.

The Uncertainty Cycle® is an innovative workshop on uncertainty management I created a few years ago in partnership with my dear friend Carlos Augusto Freitas. During this workshop, participants will learn an agile and iterative process for managing the unknown in complex project environments.

As a team, we will explore practical techniques for dealing with uncertainty, using tools such as PESTLE, scenario thinking, DevOps, business agility, and the SAFe® (Scaled Agile Framework).

In addition to the workshop, I will also deliver a lecture at the CBGPL, the leading event of PMI Brazil, which attracts over 850 professionals annually.

I look forward to seeing you there!

Masterclass in AI-Driven Project Management — New Cohort Open!

Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez and I are excited to announce that over 372 professionals have already participated in our AI Masterclasses, and now Cohort 8 is officially open for registration!

Join us this July 29 and 30, 2025, from 9:00 AM to 1:00 PM ET (14:00 to 18:00 WET) for a dynamic and practical masterclass designed to revolutionize how you manage projects.

You'll deeply engage in interactive group studies and hands-on exercises that will level up your expertise and sharpen your skills in AI-driven project management.

Whether you're leading digital transformations or simply looking to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving landscape, this is the experience for you.

Here is some of the feedback we have received:

Sign up now to secure your spot — the masterclass is currently available at a special discounted price of $399 USD (regular price $499 USD).

Don't miss the opportunity to learn, collaborate, and transform the way you deliver projects.

This is your chance to learn directly from industry leaders and take your skills to the next level as AI continues to reshape the future of project management.

AIPM Now Licensed in the UK and Several Other Countries

Additionally, Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez and I are thrilled to announce that AIPM (AI-Driven Project Management) is now officially licensed in the UK and several other countries!

This marks a significant milestone, as AIPM is poised to be adopted in a more institutionalized way across various regions. It's a moment of great pride for us, as we've dedicated considerable effort to bring this innovative approach to project management onto the global stage.

As the world increasingly embraces the potential of AI, it's essential to stay ahead of the curve.

AIPM will play a crucial role in shaping the future of project management, helping organizations manage complexity with AI-driven insights.

As you know, the "AI-Driven Project Management Revolution" project, which Antonio and I initiated, aims to raise awareness and develop practical solutions for integrating AI into project management.

We are deeply excited about this development and encourage you to stay tuned for more updates!

Unlock Your Potential: Explore My Online Courses

I often receive questions about my online courses, and I'm excited to share more about them!

In addition to my LinkedIn courses, I also have an Online School where I offer eight comprehensive

Your Voice Matters!

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Thanks for your support, and I hope it was helpful to you.

Cheers,

Ricardo Vargas