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Hello everyone. Welcome to the 5 Minutes podcast. Today I'd like to talk about the relevance of the second-order consequence. Many times when we make a decision in a project, in a product we are developing, and even in our own lives, it's very hard for us to see down the road. We always think about the immediate consequence. We don't think about secondary risks and risks that may arise and the consequences that may arise from that initial decision. And I was studying this, and I came to an article that tells an anecdote about the British colonial government in India related to the COBRA effect. What happened is that during these colonial times in the city of New Delhi, there were a lot of very dangerous snakes. And this was a real trouble to the society and to the local government. So the local government decided to pay a bounty to every dead snake that people brought to them. So what happened? Immediately, people start chasing these snakes and bringing them to the British colonial government to receive the bounty. And this okay looks very fine until entrepreneurs decided to. Oh, why not develop a farm to create snakes so we can grow them in a confined environment and then sell them to the British colonial government and receive the bounty? So they start transforming this into a big business and a nice business. When the government saw that, what the government decided to do, I do not pay any bounty. What so ever for that snakes that you bring to me.
I stop at the program. Then what happened with the farmers? They said, okay, so this is not a business anymore. Okay, let's throw all the snakes on the road in the city. And what happened? The infestation that was bad became terrible. And of course, I don't know if this is true or not, but the message is very powerful. When the British colonial government decided to pay the bounty, they didn't expect the second-order consequences. This is happening all the time with all of us. Many times we, for example, have trouble with a supplier, and this is a relevant supplier. And then we say, okay, let's go to the court, let's prosecute. And we don't see that that supplier is a key supplier on many things to our organization. And then that supplier may say, you know, I will not supply to you anymore, and then you have a much bigger consequence. And this is the second-order consequence. For example, I have said this many times, I truly believe, and I want to believe that, for example, when Mark Zuckerberg created Facebook, he didn't aim to create a fake news platform. He aimed to create something that easily connects people so that people can share, share information fast quickly, and connect people. And this was his idea. I want to believe that. Okay. But what happened? The same speed that was used to, I would say, benefit and integrate people was used to disseminate bad information, poor information. For example, today, in social media, we are living now the second order consequence because it's so fantastic for you, for example, to see videos on TikTok that you may get addicted.
Instagram. It's so nice to see beautiful people, beautiful photos. But at the same time, when you see someone waking up so gorgeous, it makes you look bad. It makes you feel ugly. And this is why we are facing this massive depression among teenagers. And this is a second-order consequence. For example, when we are developing a product, we are developing a new product. It can be an airport or a software tool. We need to think about what are the second-order consequences. And one of the reasons I'm recording this and one of the reasons I was trying to look for, I would say, stories to share with you today. It's because we are now facing this turning point with artificial intelligence. Everybody and including myself, we are, you know, it's fantastic. It's absolutely. Amazing what we can see and the power of AI. But then I need to ask, what would be the second-order consequences? Are we thinking about the second-order consequences? And I'm not saying just bad consequences, but are we ready to understand that the consequences are much deeper than the consequences that we see with our eyes today? And it's our obligation and our responsibility as a squad team, as a project manager, to think about that. Because when the second order consequences, they arrive many times it's too late for you to take any action. Think about that, and see you next week with another 5 Minutes Podcast.
