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Hi everyone, here is Ricardo Vargas, and this is the 5 Minutes Podcast. Of course, we are seeing a lot of changes in the global landscape, in geopolitics, with the decisions of the new US government and all the implications of that. But this podcast is not to discuss that. This podcast is to discuss what do you do when you are facing things like that. So, how do I do? For example, imagine that you are a US organization and you need to import things from Canada, Mexico, or China to supply your project. So I'm saying a natural thing and suddenly there is a 25% tax out of that. So what do you need to do? So what is my exercise? I always do a what-if scenario. And I love the concept of the what-if scenario. Why? Because I try to envision potential future outcomes, and I can try to see how I should act and what options I may have to overcome the challenges. For example, what if this challenge, these taxes of 25% on Canada persist? What do I do if they do not change in the upcoming days due to negotiations? Second, what if Canada applies reciprocity and raises the taxes, and then the US raises again? And then we start a complete, really big trade war on that? What do you do in your project? Is there a way that I do not import that product? Is there a way to import that product from another country or region?
Is there a possibility that I can shift and change the scope of my project to not need that specific imported equipment or material? Can I change some pieces of the technology of my project to avoid that path? These are all results of what-if analysis. And honestly, if you ask me what I'm doing, most in the past 2 or 3 weeks is what-if analysis. So, I'm thinking about all possible scenarios and several projects I'm working on. For example, when Deepseek started. What if Deepseek is really, really right, and we do not need the chips? We do not need that mountain of money to develop a generative AI. What if? Because I don't know. I'm not from Leipzig, so I don't know. But what if. What are the implications of my business in AI and the business of my clients in AI? This is exactly what you need to do. And what if analysis. It's very simple. It's just to answer, what if? What would you do? And one thing that you should avoid at all costs. It's your first response. And honestly, it happens to me all the time. It's something like, what if this happens? And then my answer is, this will never happen. No, no, this cannot be your answer. I'm saying it happened even as absurdly as it seems when you idealize that idea, and you now need to understand. It happens. It happens. Your project lost the biggest sponsor of its existence to justify it.
You lost it. What do you do? Your main software developer. Your main technical professional just left the company today. Today, he left the company and will work for someone else. What do you do? And this? This is not. Of course, in the past, I would say. Oh, this is risk management. No, no, this is survival management. Because when we are living in volatile times, we must be adaptable. We must think about all possible different scenarios. I know this is super stressful. This is super hard. But you need to start developing contingencies and preparing. It's like, please let me use an example just for the tactical reasons. It's much better for you to think about how you should proceed in case of fire inside your home before there is a fire in your home, because anticipation is everything. So today, I'm spending hours and hours and hours trying to figure out potential paths for the future. For example, one of the things we are talking about geopolitics. Okay, what would be the implications of the positions of, for example, the North American government vis a vis the other governments, because anyone working on international projects will face that. Anyone if you work in oil, if you work, for example, in the Federal Service of the US, if you work in any multinational company, you will face this period because we don't know when an agreement will be reached, and we don't know in what terms things will.
We don't know how much this will escalate or not. Will this trigger a global crisis in terms of the supply chain? We don't know. We don't know. Right? We don't know how things will operate. I know that volatility is extremely high, and the best way for me to work with volatility is through two things. One, I already said many times to reduce the life cycle of the project, try to do less, and deliver faster even if it's not the complete product because then you put your product. This is the biggest concept around Agile because by doing that, you reduce your exposure to time, which only increases volatility. And second is doing what if analysis I think about that every time I watch on TV something. I think, what if this happens? What will be my action? What will be the decisions that I will need to make with my team if there is a cyber security breach on on my PMO, what would be the implications of that? If the project I'm doing requires a supplier that is not operating anymore, what should I do to avoid that? What are the possibilities and possible paths to do that? This is something that becomes a big asset for all of us in terms of adaptability in volatile scenarios. Think always about that when you are delivering your project because change is the only thing that will be very, very permanent in your project.
Think about that and see you next week with another 5 Minutes Podcast.