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Hi everyone. This is Ricardo Vargas, and this is the 5 Minutes Podcast. Welcome to 2024. This is the first episode of this year. And, of course, I want to start sharing with you three things that are in my head. Maybe as a concern, maybe as an opportunity, but things that are at the center of what I'm thinking about doing and how my projects will be this year. And the first one, it's, of course, about artificial intelligence. And if you remember, almost one year ago, when Antonio Nieto and I wrote the article, how AI Will Transform Project Management. What has changed? It's the will; it's the will. The word will because now it's not willing about the future anymore. Now it's the present. We said, oh, I will make your job easier. This year is the time we will see our job becoming easier. It will affect the job market now. We will clearly see how this affects the job market. So, what is happening is that AI is now mainstream. It's not just a trend that people are saying, oh look, the world will be different. No, this year is the time to see these things happening, to use AI as part of our work as a mainstream area of our work, and not just as a trend in the future, something that will happen. So, OpenAI AI will not be part of this futuristic scenario, but it will be part of the present that we see every day.
The second trend for me is generative AI in math, engineering, and calculus and why I'm saying, and I'm trying to say this every time I have a chance. We did the master class recently with Antonio, and I shared this. I will share this in this podcast and why this is a big deal. Because today when we see generative AI, it's great to draw, to create a photo or a drawing or to create a text for you. Why? Because these are not exact answers. If I ask you to draw a house, you can draw a thousand different homes, and all of them will fit in that description or that prompt. So, ChatGPT or Gemini or Troubat, what do they do? They combine words. They combine pixels. For example, if it's Dall-E to create an image or a text. But when I say the house is beautiful, the residence is great, or the home is fantastic, all these three statements are, I would say, in some ways, quite similar, right? They reflect the same feeling and the same attitude. But when I ask you how much is two plus two? There is no way. You tell me no. Maybe it's three, maybe it's three and a half. Four and a half.
No, it's four. It's sharp. It means it must return a precise answer. Honestly, both GPT and Gemini are not great at that. Even with a code interpreter. That is the seed of what I'm talking about here. They are challenges. So what I'm expecting to see this year is that some tools, or maybe even I'm using just a word here, the GPT of math or what some people are talking about as Q, I don't know, will come into place. And these, oh God, these will be at the disruption of the disruption because these if we thought that GPT was something new and breakthrough, this one will massively affect the work in project management because, you know, all the mathematical areas of what we do as project managers will use this kind of tool. So if this becomes true, and I have a feeling that this will become true sooner than later, this will be very, very, extremely disruptive for us. And trend number three is volatility to the extreme. And this is not related to AI or to technology. I'm saying volatility in the geopolitics in the macroeconomic levels. Just to give you an idea, this year, almost half of the world's population will probably vote to elect their representatives. And why. This is a big deal because this election will be different because the sense of polarization is increasing. And when you have polarized views, it means it's A against B; it's plus against.
Minus. And these affect dramatically the risks in your project because, for example, if candidate A is elected, there will be a more protective environment. So, it will incentivize the local industry and the local market to the detriment of globalization. But if candidate B is elected, it will improve globalization. In this. When you have this kind of sense of what happens with your risks, they skyrocket. Because for example, let's suppose you are building a project that is based on a concept of, for example, an increase in free trade. For example, you were doing a shipping project that relies on this free trade concept. If these elections turn into a more protective environment, your project may not deliver the benefits, or your project may face dramatic risks. And why I'm saying this is because this matters a lot to us, a lot. Depending on how things evolve. We need to take different actions as project managers, as well as managing initiatives and projects. These three things are on the top of my head this year: how do I cope when I become mainstream, how can I cope with this math coming in, and how can I, I would say, find advantages and points I can raise with that? The third one is how I will handle this volatility. Even knowing that I am local. I'm based on a project, but my company delivers products to other people, so there is no way you will not be affected by the context of geopolitics.
Maybe wars will become more intense; maybe wars will become less intense. There is a lot of questions without answers that we need to know. And one final bonus for you, the fourth one that is in my mind is, you know, this concept about waterfall and agile. Okay, this method is better. This is becoming, and I think in 2024, with AI and everything, this will become part of our past. What will really matter to us will be hybrid models, how you can tailor your approach, mixing waterfall concepts, agile concepts, and whatever you can to deliver better because there is no such way as one size fits all. And I think these four items will guide you. For example, I'm talking about myself and my decisions in the projects I will undertake this year. On a personal side where I want to study, where I want to put my energy and where do I think I can make the best possible impact. So think about that. If you have any other ideas, please share your comments. I wish you all a Happy New Year, and I'm very excited. I think this year will be great for all of us. Okay, see you next week with another 5 Minutes Podcast.