Trust Me, We Can Control Much Less Than We Think
Ricardo talks about the predictions we make for our projects and initiatives in this week's episode. He explains that we frequently have an illusion of control and that the perception of future reality is significantly more complicated than reality itself. Professor Philip Tetlock found that only 45 percent of almost 30,000 predictions made by various professionals were accurate. This means that the probability of a miss is equal to the probability of a hit, much like flipping a coin.
Ricardo also gives tips on how to deal with these forecasts. First, it is essential to view them as perspectives, not absolute truths. Second, it is necessary to evaluate the potential impacts of each scenario on the project or initiative if the forecast or risk materializes. Diversification is an essential additional strategy because it creates an adaptation tool that enables us to adjust to various scenarios.
Listen to the podcast to know more.