Risk Management

In this episode, Ricardo discusses a recent global computer meltdown that affected 1% of Microsoft Windows computers, causing chaos across multiple industries. He comments on the risks of relying on unique technologies, using an example from his own business. Ricardo distributes his technological needs among several suppliers (Apple, Google, AWS, Dropbox) to mitigate risks.

In this podcast, Ricardo discusses the severe flooding crisis in Southern Brazil, emphasizing three key points. First, focus on immediate rescue and safety, not on blame. Authorities should prioritize evacuating people, providing basic needs, and ensuring shelters. Second, protect the vulnerable, such as women and children, from potential abuse in chaotic environments by maintaining security and organizing safe shelters.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses how even small projects like assembling IKEA furniture can become overwhelming if not planned and executed efficiently. He highlights the need for attention, commitment, and streamlined communication to prevent such tasks from accumulating and disrupting larger goals.

In this episode, Ricardo talks about AI's role in risk management, particularly in risk identification, which is based on human experience and often involves techniques such as brainstorming. AI can analyze large amounts of data to identify links that people might overlook, such as the placement of diapers next to beer on supermarket shelves.

In this episode, Ricardo talks about his recent adventure of moving homes. He shares insights from selling his old house and buying a new one, planning the move for a less busy time, and the unexpected turn of events when he decided to renovate his new apartment. The journey, filled with planning and chaos, offers a unique perspective on project management applied to personal life.

In this 5 Minutes Podcast, Ricardo covers the necessity of recognizing triggers in project management and artificial intelligence. Triggers indicate patterns, risks, or occurrences before they happen. Ricardo uses analogies such as plane catastrophes and building collapses to illustrate the need to pay attention to signals and indicators.

In this week's episode, Ricardo addresses the Global Risk Report recently released by the World Economic Forum. He emphasizes and validates some clear risks, such as climate change and extreme weather, as well as long-term risks, noting that although they are not new, they are reaching a critical point of no return. Beyond the immediate risks, there is something he talks and posts about almost every week:

In this episode, Ricardo discusses the common practice of calculating Expected Monetary Value (EMV) for risk management. EMV involves multiplying the probability of a risk by its impact to determine the exposure and, in turn, the financial reserves needed. He points out that using EMV for risk reserves is only effective when managing a large portfolio of risks as an insurance company does.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses the tragedy of the Titan Submersible, highlighting what we can learn from this deep-sea catastrophe. He discusses the inherent complexities of oceanic exploration and their implications on project management, using the submersible's story as a case study.

In this episode, Ricardo explores the practical facets of Bayesian thinking, demonstrating how previous events and knowledge can reshape our evaluation of future risks. In his discussion, he avoids complex formulas, highlighting the theorem's real-world implications. He also underscores the significance of 'triggers,' events or facts that provide additional information, refining our grasp of probabilities.

Ricardo talks about the predictions we make for our projects and initiatives in this week's episode. He explains that we frequently have an illusion of control and that the perception of future reality is significantly more complicated than reality itself. Professor Philip Tetlock found that only 45 percent of almost 30,000 predictions made by various professionals were accurate.

In this week's episode, Ricardo talks about moral hazards. He exemplifies the recent collapse of the North American financial system when the Silicon Valley Bank closed its doors. From then on, a debate arose about the extent to which the government should interfere, with the emergence of moral hazard, because if the government helps, other banks will also have this right.

In this week's episode, Ricardo talks about ChatGPT again and comments on people's lack of knowledge and ability to assess how these artificial intelligence mechanisms work. Many people believe that ChatGPT is a magic tool that can answer any question.

This week, Ricardo discusses the 18th edition of the Global Risk Report, published annually by the World Economic Forum. This report presents a ranking of global risks and threats, both short-term and long-term. From an operational standpoint, the project or initiatives we are working on can be severely impacted by events that happen far away. Ricardo draws a parallel between the positioning of our project from the global perspective.