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Hello everyone, here is Ricardo Vargas, and this is the 5 Minutes Podcast. And today I want to bring you, one more year, a detail and a strategic analysis of the 21st edition of the Global Risk Report 2026 that was just published by the World Economic Forum in Davos last week. The document is, without any doubt, one of the most important compasses for understanding the terrain where our projects will be built in the coming years. And it's not something for next month, but we are talking about the coming years. What are the main trends? And the report defines the year 2026 as the beginning of the age of competition. This marks a departure from the global collaboration we have tried to build over the last few decades. since the Second World War. And we are entering a period where global stability is facing massive pressure, and the rules of the game are changing rapidly. And to translate this into our management reality, I want to dive deep into 3 vital concepts of the report. The turbulent outlook, the economic reckoning, and the coalition of the willing. So let's start with the first one, turbulent outlook. The report points out that 50% of surveyed leaders and experts anticipate a turbulent or storming outlook in the next two years. This is 50%, it's not 5%. The main driver of this instability is what the report calls geoeconomic confrontation, ranked as the number one risk for 2026. But honestly, what does this mean in practice for our projects and our work as project managers? It means that governance and power blocks are using economic tools as weapons of war. They are talking about the rates, sanctions, investment controls, and technological restrictions being applied to gain a strategic advantage. And if you manage international projects or depend on a global supply chain, the predictability you thought you had is pretty much gone. You can no longer assume the materials, the ships, the technologies will arrive on time just because you have a signed contract. Maybe they will never arrive. Systematically important supply chains are at risk of rupture due to these political decisions. The second fundamental concept we need to dissect here is the concept of economic reckoning. Economic risks have risen drastically in the ranking of concerns this year. The world is carrying a colossal global death toll, exceeding 250 trillion US dollars. At the same time, governments are under massive pressure to spend more on defense, energy transition, and the race for artificial intelligence. This creates a scenario where the cost of capital will increase, and money will become more expensive and a very scarce resource. Furthermore, the report warns of the risk of asset bubbles bursting, possibly linked to over-evaluation of technologies like artificial intelligence. But for our project portfolio, this demands extreme, not high, but extreme financial rigor and iron-clad discipline. Projects that I call vanity projects or pet projects, or those that do not have a clear and rapid return or investment, will be the first ones to die. You need to ensure that your project business case is bulletproof. Focus on efficiency and real value. There is no more room for waste on poorly speculative bets in an environment of reduced liquidity. Another point aggravating this economic and social scenario is misinformation. Misinformation and disinformation appear as the second biggest global risk in the short term. This creates social polarization and makes fact-based decisions difficult, which is a poison for any complex project. And finally, I want to talk about the strategic solution that the report proposes, the Coalition of the Willing. We live in a multipolar world where global consensus and large multilateral organizations are deadlocked and inefficient. So instead of waiting for everyone in your project to agree, which may never happen, are seeing a rise of the concept of minilateralism. This means that a small group of countries, companies, and stakeholders with aligned interests join forces to make things happen regardless of the rest. This is a powerful leadership lesson for all of us. How often does your project stall because you're trying to get consensus from absolutely everyone involved? The idea of the coalition of the willing suggests that we must identify who really wants the change and move forward with that group. Do not wait for unanimity. Seek the critical mass that has the will to execute and use that energy to unlock decisions. It's better to move forward with a smaller committed group than remain paralyzed trying to convince skeptics in a polarized environment. So to summarize everything today, in very good project management terms. First, protect your supply chain against geoeconomic confrontation. Have a plan B, a plan C, or a plan D for your critical supplies. Second, prepare for the economic reckoning with impeccable financial management, because money will be very expensive. And third, lead through a coalition of the willing, uniting with those who want to make the project happen. The report reminds you that the future is not a fixed path, but a range of possibilities that depend on our actions today. If you have a chance, take a look at the report, read the executive summary, and if you have time, read the full report. It's excellent. And let's remember, it's up to us as leaders to build the resilience needed to navigate this area. So, I hope you enjoyed this episode. Read the report and see you next week with another 5 Minutes podcast.
