Risk Management

In this week's episode, Ricardo questions whether artificial intelligence (AI) actually reduces project risks or creates new ones. While it helps predict delays, identify flaws, and minimize errors, AI can create invisible risks, such as data bias, which distorts results, and "blind trust," when professionals accept predictions without critical analysis. Another risk is technological dependence:

In this week's episode, Ricardo explains the "broken windows" theory, which originated in criminology, and how it applies to project management. The central idea is that minor signs of disorder, when ignored, lead to bigger problems. In projects, accepting delays or failures without correction sends the message that quality and discipline are unimportant, opening the door to widespread carelessness.

In this episode, Ricardo talks about the ongoing importance of earned value analysis in project management. Despite advancements in AI, real-time dashboards, earned value remains a precise, structured, and effective tool—especially in complex environments. AI can automate data collection and forecasting, but it cannot replace human judgment. Metrics like the cost performance index (CPI) require interpretation to guide decisions.

In this episode, Ricardo explores the concept of “Risk Lensing”, the idea that risk is shaped by individual perceptions rather than objective data. He uses the example of a child climbing a tree to show how various people can have different perspectives on the same event. Understanding how stakeholders view opportunities and risks is more important for effective risk management than formulae or spreadsheets.

In this podcast, Ricardo discusses how many project failures are due not to technical issues, budgets, or deadlines but to weak project sponsorship. A senior sponsor is not enough if they are disengaged or unaware of the project’s progress. Sponsors are crucial to solving complex problems and providing executive support. Changes in sponsorship often introduce new risks, as new sponsors bring different priorities and behaviors.

In this episode, Ricardo talks about DeepSeek, a groundbreaking AI application from a small Chinese startup. Unlike other AI models, DeepSeek was trained for just $5.7M—far less than OpenAI’s $100M+ investments—yet it rivals top models like OpenAI’s O1. This breakthrough could disrupt the AI industry, enabling smaller companies to develop advanced models without massive infrastructure.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025. Released annually, this report highlights the most pressing global challenges and trends, shaping discussions at Davos and significantly influencing project management worldwide. Ricardo examines the top risks for 2025, such as armed conflicts, extreme weather events, and the rise of misinformation, while comparing them to previous years' findings.

In this episode, Ricardo talks about the importance of evaluating scenarios and macro trends when planning projects. He explains that the end of the year is an ideal time to reflect on retrospectives and forecasts, using a variety of sources, such as The Economist and Wired, for a broad and informed view. Ricardo shares Big Ideas, a series of reflections based on these trends, as a way to help people prepare for the future.

In this episode, Ricardo reflects on the remarkable five-year restoration of Notre Dame Cathedral after its devastating 2019 fire. He highlights five key project management lessons:

In this episode, Ricardo discusses Meta's recent development of a "self-thought evaluator," which uses synthetic data to train AI models instead of real human-generated data. This innovation could transform project management by creating lessons learned and risk insights from simulated, rather than real, projects.

In this episode, Ricardo Vargas explores the growing debate around AI's impact on jobs. Last year, Morgan Stanley predicted that AI would disrupt 40% of the workforce (Link to the Article). Last week, Prof Daron Acemoglu from MIT said that everybody overestimates the impact and that the true impact is only 5% (Link to the Article). But for Ricardo, the percentage does not matter; the key is to be prepared for these changes.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses a recent global computer meltdown that affected 1% of Microsoft Windows computers, causing chaos across multiple industries. He comments on the risks of relying on unique technologies, using an example from his own business. Ricardo distributes his technological needs among several suppliers (Apple, Google, AWS, Dropbox) to mitigate risks.

In this podcast, Ricardo discusses the severe flooding crisis in Southern Brazil, emphasizing three key points. First, focus on immediate rescue and safety, not on blame. Authorities should prioritize evacuating people, providing basic needs, and ensuring shelters. Second, protect the vulnerable, such as women and children, from potential abuse in chaotic environments by maintaining security and organizing safe shelters.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses how even small projects like assembling IKEA furniture can become overwhelming if not planned and executed efficiently. He highlights the need for attention, commitment, and streamlined communication to prevent such tasks from accumulating and disrupting larger goals.