Risk Management

In this episode, Ricardo talks about DeepSeek, a groundbreaking AI application from a small Chinese startup. Unlike other AI models, DeepSeek was trained for just $5.7M—far less than OpenAI’s $100M+ investments—yet it rivals top models like OpenAI’s O1. This breakthrough could disrupt the AI industry, enabling smaller companies to develop advanced models without massive infrastructure.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025. Released annually, this report highlights the most pressing global challenges and trends, shaping discussions at Davos and significantly influencing project management worldwide. Ricardo examines the top risks for 2025, such as armed conflicts, extreme weather events, and the rise of misinformation, while comparing them to previous years' findings.

In this episode, Ricardo talks about the importance of evaluating scenarios and macro trends when planning projects. He explains that the end of the year is an ideal time to reflect on retrospectives and forecasts, using a variety of sources, such as The Economist and Wired, for a broad and informed view. Ricardo shares Big Ideas, a series of reflections based on these trends, as a way to help people prepare for the future.

In this episode, Ricardo reflects on the remarkable five-year restoration of Notre Dame Cathedral after its devastating 2019 fire. He highlights five key project management lessons:

In this episode, Ricardo discusses Meta's recent development of a "self-thought evaluator," which uses synthetic data to train AI models instead of real human-generated data. This innovation could transform project management by creating lessons learned and risk insights from simulated, rather than real, projects.

In this episode, Ricardo Vargas explores the growing debate around AI's impact on jobs. Last year, Morgan Stanley predicted that AI would disrupt 40% of the workforce (Link to the Article). Last week, Prof Daron Acemoglu from MIT said that everybody overestimates the impact and that the true impact is only 5% (Link to the Article). But for Ricardo, the percentage does not matter; the key is to be prepared for these changes.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses a recent global computer meltdown that affected 1% of Microsoft Windows computers, causing chaos across multiple industries. He comments on the risks of relying on unique technologies, using an example from his own business. Ricardo distributes his technological needs among several suppliers (Apple, Google, AWS, Dropbox) to mitigate risks.

In this podcast, Ricardo discusses the severe flooding crisis in Southern Brazil, emphasizing three key points. First, focus on immediate rescue and safety, not on blame. Authorities should prioritize evacuating people, providing basic needs, and ensuring shelters. Second, protect the vulnerable, such as women and children, from potential abuse in chaotic environments by maintaining security and organizing safe shelters.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses how even small projects like assembling IKEA furniture can become overwhelming if not planned and executed efficiently. He highlights the need for attention, commitment, and streamlined communication to prevent such tasks from accumulating and disrupting larger goals.

In this episode, Ricardo talks about AI's role in risk management, particularly in risk identification, which is based on human experience and often involves techniques such as brainstorming. AI can analyze large amounts of data to identify links that people might overlook, such as the placement of diapers next to beer on supermarket shelves.

In this episode, Ricardo talks about his recent adventure of moving homes. He shares insights from selling his old house and buying a new one, planning the move for a less busy time, and the unexpected turn of events when he decided to renovate his new apartment. The journey, filled with planning and chaos, offers a unique perspective on project management applied to personal life.

In this 5 Minutes Podcast, Ricardo covers the necessity of recognizing triggers in project management and artificial intelligence. Triggers indicate patterns, risks, or occurrences before they happen. Ricardo uses analogies such as plane catastrophes and building collapses to illustrate the need to pay attention to signals and indicators.

In this week's episode, Ricardo addresses the Global Risk Report recently released by the World Economic Forum. He emphasizes and validates some clear risks, such as climate change and extreme weather, as well as long-term risks, noting that although they are not new, they are reaching a critical point of no return. Beyond the immediate risks, there is something he talks and posts about almost every week:

In this episode, Ricardo discusses the common practice of calculating Expected Monetary Value (EMV) for risk management. EMV involves multiplying the probability of a risk by its impact to determine the exposure and, in turn, the financial reserves needed. He points out that using EMV for risk reserves is only effective when managing a large portfolio of risks as an insurance company does.